Harness AI to Make Smarter, Safer Decisions Using a Futures Wheel
A simple prompt to reveal unintended consequences
I wrote a post a while back about futures wheels — a quick way to spot the direct and indirect consequences of a decision, event, or trend. It’s a structured brainstorming tool popularized by Jerome C. Glenn. You pick an event for brainstorming, list out possible outcomes, and then connect them like a mind map to see second- or third-order effects.
Today, I’m revisiting that post for the AI era. Rather than only sketching on a whiteboard (still a great way to brainstorm), I’m using an AI prompt to dig deeper into every possible outcome — especially the hidden ones. If you want to avoid unpleasant surprises, an AI assistant can help spot the side effects you might miss on your own.
Why This Matters
We make big decisions every day, from important life decisions to critical work-related ones. A standard “pros vs. cons” list might not surface hidden impacts — like how a small tweak to your product’s pricing could strain customer support or trigger unexpected PR issues.
That’s where AI can help. By guiding it to explore each outcome in a structured way, you’ll spot pitfalls and opportunities early.
The New AI Twist
Think of the AI prompt as your personal research assistant — one that questions, challenges, and cross-checks your ideas. It follows a structure similar to the futures wheel but goes deeper, assigning probabilities, noting evidence levels, and highlighting ethical or sensitive concerns. It’s like having a second brain that’s always on the hunt for blind spots.
Example Prompt Template
Replace [your subject] with your topic, then feed this into your AI assistant. I like to use GPT-based models, but anything advanced enough to handle structured responses will do.
This will deliver a comprehensive and structured analysis of your subject’s impact chain, emphasizing clarity, logical reasoning, and probabilistic weighting.
You are to act as a “futures wheel” analyst.
The subject is: [Insert Your Core Decision, Event, or Trend Here].
1. **Subject Overview**
- Summarize the subject in 1–2 sentences so we’re clear on the context.
2. **Direct Consequences**
- List a set of first-order (direct) consequences that might result from this subject.
- Include both positive and negative outcomes.
- For each consequence, assign a probability or confidence level (e.g., 60% ±10%, High/Medium/Low).
3. **Combining Direct Consequences**
- Randomly pair or group 2 or more direct consequences and see if their combination creates a new, second-order outcome.
- In other words, if both Consequence A and Consequence B happen together, what additional effect might emerge?
- Assign a probability or confidence level for each of these indirect “combo effects.”
4. **Indirect Consequences**
- List out all the new (second-order) impacts that come from combining direct consequences.
- Highlight any particularly surprising or hidden impacts.
5. **Summary & Next Steps**
- Provide a quick overview of the key points, including major risks, benefits, or ethical considerations.
- Suggest how we might explore or manage these outcomes.I also created a GPT for this, if you want to try it out.
This framework mirrors the idea of a futures wheel, but with an added layer of AI-driven logic. Each “impact path” in the prompt is like a ring on the futures wheel, highlighting the next set of consequences. The final sections (hidden impacts and long-term results) help you brainstorm even further.
How to Use It
- Run the Prompt: Copy and paste the template above into your AI tool, filling in [your subject].
- Review the Output: Spot-check for anything surprising or new. The AI might uncover angles you never considered.
- Adjust & Iterate: Tweak the prompt as needed. If your subject changes, re-run the analysis.
Example Use Cases
- Business Decisions: From changing pricing to opening a new office location.
- Team Strategy: Hiring or restructuring. Catch potential friction points and plan solutions.
- Product Roadmap: Assess feature launches for risk vs. reward.
- Personal Choices: Major life changes, such as relocation or big purchases.
Example — What if OpenAI announces that they have reached AGI?
### Futures Wheel Analysis: OpenAI Announces Achievement of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
#### **Subject Overview**
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) represents AI capable of performing any intellectual task that humans can do. If OpenAI announces achieving AGI, it could mark a pivotal moment in technology, reshaping industries, economies, and society.
---
### **1. Direct Consequences**
Here are the potential first-order outcomes of the AGI announcement:
1. **Disruption in Job Markets**
- High probability (85%): Automation could replace many white-collar and creative roles.
- Negative impact: Widespread fear of obsolescence.
- Positive impact: New industries and roles could emerge around AGI oversight and ethics.
2. **Acceleration of Scientific Discovery**
- High probability (80%): AGI could solve complex problems in medicine, climate change, and energy.
- Positive impact: Faster development of cures for diseases and renewable energy solutions.
3. **Global Economic Shifts**
- Medium probability (70%): Nations and corporations with early access to AGI gain immense power.
- Negative impact: Widening economic inequality.
- Positive impact: Potential for reduced production costs and increased efficiency globally.
4. **Geopolitical Tensions**
- High probability (75%): Governments may race to control AGI for national security.
- Negative impact: Risk of AGI misuse in cyber warfare or surveillance.
5. **Societal Debate Over Ethics**
- High probability (85%): Intense focus on AGI safety, morality, and rights.
- Positive impact: Development of new frameworks for AI governance.
- Negative impact: Polarization over AGI's role in society.
---
### **2. Combining Direct Consequences**
Pairing two or more direct consequences reveals second-order outcomes:
1. **Job Market Disruption + Economic Shifts**
- Outcome: Mass unemployment in some sectors paired with rapid wealth accumulation for AGI-focused companies.
- Confidence: 80%.
- Impact: Governments may need to implement universal basic income (UBI) or large-scale retraining programs.
2. **Acceleration of Scientific Discovery + Ethics Debate**
- Outcome: Public demand for open access to AGI’s capabilities to ensure equitable benefits.
- Confidence: 75%.
- Impact: Creation of global coalitions for AGI transparency.
3. **Geopolitical Tensions + Job Market Disruption**
- Outcome: Social unrest in economically disadvantaged regions, potentially exacerbating migration crises.
- Confidence: 70%.
- Impact: Governments may impose restrictions on AGI deployment.
---
### **3. Indirect Consequences**
From the above combinations, new impacts emerge:
1. **Rise of a Global AGI Governance Framework**
- Nations and corporations may form an international treaty similar to nuclear non-proliferation agreements.
- Confidence: 65%.
- Impact: Increased global cooperation but also risks of power consolidation.
2. **Emergence of a Post-Work Economy**
- With AGI automating most tasks, societies might redefine work and income distribution.
- Confidence: 60%.
- Impact: Shift in cultural values regarding productivity and purpose.
3. **Ethical Backlash Against Corporations**
- Public concern over misuse of AGI could lead to boycotts or stricter regulations.
- Confidence: 70%.
- Impact: Companies may need to operate with extreme transparency to gain public trust.
---
### **4. Summary & Next Steps**
#### **Key Points:**
- **Risks:** Job displacement, economic inequality, misuse in warfare, ethical dilemmas.
- **Benefits:** Accelerated scientific progress, potential for a post-scarcity economy, global collaboration.
- **Surprises:** AGI’s ability to prompt deep cultural and social transformation, such as redefining the concept of work.
#### **Next Steps:**
1. **Monitor Developments:** Track announcements and advancements in AGI capabilities.
2. **Policy Design:** Advocate for early creation of governance frameworks to address AGI’s societal impact.
3. **Adaptation Strategies:** Prepare for potential disruptions by investing in reskilling, ethical guidelines, and cross-industry collaboration.
Would you like me to expand on any specific consequence or outcome?Example — What if AI is able to design and build digital products as well as the best humans?
### Futures Wheel Analysis: AI Achieves World-Class Digital Design and Engineering Capabilities
#### **Subject Overview**
AI reaching world-class proficiency in digital design and engineering would revolutionize the creative and technical landscape. For digital designers, this could redefine workflows, reshape career paths, and alter the value of human creativity in the design process.
---
### **1. Direct Consequences for You as a Designer**
1. **Streamlined Workflows**
- High probability (85%): AI tools automate repetitive tasks like prototyping, layout optimization, and versioning.
- Positive impact: Free up your time for strategic, high-concept work.
- Negative impact: Reduced need for manual skills could devalue certain aspects of your expertise.
2. **Intensified Competition**
- Medium probability (75%): AI democratizes access to design capabilities, enabling non-designers to create professional-level outputs.
- Negative impact: Increased competition from less-skilled individuals using AI.
- Positive impact: Differentiation shifts to creativity, vision, and human-centric storytelling.
3. **New Roles and Opportunities**
- Medium probability (70%): Designers pivot toward roles like “AI design strategist,” focusing on curating, guiding, and refining AI-generated work.
- Positive impact: Opportunities to collaborate with AI for more ambitious projects.
4. **Faster Project Turnarounds**
- High probability (85%): AI accelerates design processes, reducing timelines for projects.
- Positive impact: Increased productivity and ability to handle more clients or projects.
- Negative impact: Pressure to deliver results faster could lead to burnout.
5. **Pressure to Upskill**
- High probability (80%): Staying relevant will require mastering AI tools and understanding how to integrate them into workflows.
- Positive impact: Acquiring cutting-edge skills increases your value.
- Negative impact: Steep learning curves for new tools may add stress.
6. **Creative Inspiration**
- Medium probability (70%): AI-generated concepts and ideas could serve as a source of inspiration for your work.
- Positive impact: Enhanced creative output.
- Negative impact: Potential over-reliance on AI, limiting your creative intuition.
---
### **2. Combining Direct Consequences**
1. **Streamlined Workflows + Pressure to Upskill**
- Outcome: Designers who master AI tools become more valuable, while those who don’t may struggle to find work.
- Confidence: 85%.
- Impact: Divides emerge between AI-savvy designers and traditionalists, incentivizing continuous learning.
2. **Intensified Competition + Faster Turnarounds**
- Outcome: Freelance markets become saturated as more people use AI, driving down rates for standard design tasks.
- Confidence: 80%.
- Impact: Success depends on offering unique, human-centric services that AI cannot replicate.
3. **New Roles + Creative Inspiration**
- Outcome: Designers take on hybrid roles, combining curation, storytelling, and ethics to differentiate their work.
- Confidence: 75%.
- Impact: Opportunities arise to shape how AI tools are used in the industry.
---
### **3. Indirect Consequences**
1. **Redefinition of “Creativity” in Digital Design**
- Society may value emotional resonance, storytelling, and human experience over technical perfection.
- Confidence: 70%.
- Impact: Your ability to connect with audiences on an emotional level becomes a key differentiator.
2. **Increased Demand for Personalized Design**
- AI makes hyper-customization possible, shifting client expectations toward unique, tailored designs.
- Confidence: 75%.
- Impact: You may focus on creating bespoke solutions that balance AI's efficiency with human creativity.
3. **Collaboration Between Designers and Engineers**
- AI blurs lines between design and engineering, requiring cross-disciplinary knowledge.
- Confidence: 65%.
- Impact: You might expand your expertise into areas like UX engineering or technical art.
4. **Emergence of New Ethical Challenges**
- AI’s influence in digital design could lead to issues like design plagiarism or misuse of generated content.
- Confidence: 80%.
- Impact: Designers may take on roles as ethical gatekeepers for AI-generated work.
---
### **4. Summary & Next Steps**
#### **Key Points for You as a Designer:**
- **Risks:** Increased competition, pressure to upskill, commodification of design, and potential over-reliance on AI.
- **Benefits:** Streamlined workflows, enhanced creative opportunities, faster turnarounds, and new career paths.
- **Surprises:** Human creativity and emotional resonance may become more valuable, and ethical leadership could emerge as a key role for designers.
#### **Next Steps for Staying Ahead:**
1. **Master AI Tools:** Stay at the forefront by learning tools that integrate AI into digital design workflows.
2. **Focus on Human-Centric Design:** Prioritize storytelling, emotional resonance, and creativity—skills that AI cannot easily replicate.
3. **Expand Your Expertise:** Explore cross-disciplinary knowledge, such as UX engineering, ethics, or strategy.
4. **Build Your Brand:** Develop a personal brand emphasizing your unique creative vision and human touch.
5. **Advocate for Ethical Use:** Position yourself as a leader in guiding how AI should be used responsibly in the design field.
Would you like to explore specific tools, skills, or strategies to future-proof your career as a designer?Adding Modifiers
Change the actor: You can modify the prompt by asking AI to respond from a perspective other than a futurist, such as a physician, politician, subject-matter expert, or professor.
Push the direction: You can adjust the prompt to request AI to concentrate on a specific type of consequence, such as focusing on weird, negative, or positive consequences.
Deep Dives: If there’s something specific you want to learn more about, follow up by asking the AI to provide more information or re-run the analysis to focus on the new topic.
Change the output: Have AI spit out an XML file that you can import into tools like draw.io for a visual representation of the futures wheel.
Conclusion
Balancing creative brainstorming (like the futures wheel) with a structured AI prompt gives you a sneak peek into future outcomes — both the good and the bad. This blend of art and tech helps you move faster while staying mindful of potential pitfalls.
Thanks for reading, and let me know how it goes. If you spot interesting use cases or have success stories, definitely share them with me!
