Harness AI to Make Smarter, Safer Decisions Using a Futures Wheel
A simple prompt to reveal unintended consequences
12 min readDec 31, 2024
I wrote a post a while back about futures wheels — a quick way to spot the direct and indirect consequences of a decision, event, or trend. It’s a structured brainstorming tool popularized by Jerome C. Glenn. You pick an event for brainstorming, list out possible outcomes, and then connect them like a mind map to see second- or third-order effects.
Today, I’m revisiting that post for the AI era. Rather than only sketching on a whiteboard (still a great way to brainstorm), I’m using an AI prompt to dig deeper into every possible outcome — especially the hidden ones. If you want to avoid unpleasant surprises, an AI assistant can help spot the side effects you might miss on your own.
Why This Matters
We make big decisions every day, from important life decisions to critical work-related ones. A standard “pros vs. cons” list might not surface hidden impacts — like how a small tweak to your product’s pricing could strain customer support or trigger unexpected PR issues.
That’s where AI can help. By guiding it to explore each outcome in a structured way, you’ll spot pitfalls and opportunities early.
The New AI Twist
Think of the AI prompt as your personal research assistant — one that questions, challenges, and cross-checks your ideas. It follows a structure similar to the futures wheel but goes deeper, assigning probabilities, noting evidence levels, and highlighting ethical or sensitive concerns. It’s like having a second brain that’s always on the hunt for blind spots.
Example Prompt Template
Replace [your subject] with your topic, then feed this into your AI assistant. I like to use GPT-based models, but anything advanced enough to handle structured responses will do.
This will deliver a comprehensive and structured analysis of your subject’s impact chain, emphasizing clarity, logical reasoning, and probabilistic weighting.
You are to act as a “futures wheel” analyst. We will work in multiple steps to map out first-order (direct), then second-order (indirect), and so on. Please follow these instructions strictly and wait for my go-ahead after each step.
---
Step 1: **Subject Overview**
1. Summarize the subject in 1–2 sentences so we’re clear on the context.
2. Then, STOP and await my feedback. Do not proceed to listing direct consequences until I say so.
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Step 2: **Direct Consequences (First Ring)**
1. List a set of first-order (direct) consequences that might result from this subject.
2. Include both positive and negative outcomes.
3. For each consequence, assign a probability or confidence level (e.g., 60% ±10%, High/Medium/Low).
4. Then, STOP and await my feedback so I can modify or add more direct consequences.
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Step 3: **Combining Direct Consequences (Second Ring)**
1. Randomly pair or group 2 or more direct consequences and see if their combination creates a new, second-order outcome.
- In other words, if both Consequence A and Consequence B happen together, what additional effect might emerge?
2. Assign a probability or confidence level for each of these indirect “combo effects.”
3. STOP again for my feedback before we move on.
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Step 4: **Indirect Consequences (Expanded Second Ring)**
1. List out all the new (second-order) impacts that come from combining direct consequences.
2. Highlight any particularly surprising or hidden impacts.
3. STOP and let me review these impacts.
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Step 5: **Summary & Next Steps**
1. Provide a quick overview of the key points, including major risks, benefits, or ethical considerations.
2. Suggest how we might explore or manage these outcomes.
3. End here and await my final feedback.
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Remember, at each step, please wait for my explicit confirmation before proceeding to the next. Thank you.I also created a GPT for this, if you want to try it out.
This framework mirrors the idea of a futures wheel, but with an added layer of AI-driven logic. Each “impact path” in the prompt is like a ring on the futures wheel, highlighting the next set of consequences. The final sections (hidden impacts and long-term results) help you brainstorm even further.
How to Use It
- Run the Prompt: Copy and paste the template above into your AI tool, filling in [your subject].
- Review the Output: Spot-check for anything surprising or new. The AI might uncover angles you never considered.
- Adjust & Iterate: Tweak the prompt as needed. If your subject changes, re-run the analysis.
Example Use Cases
- Business Decisions: From changing pricing to opening a new office location.
- Team Strategy: Hiring or restructuring. Catch potential friction points and plan solutions.
- Product Roadmap: Assess feature launches for risk vs. reward.
- Personal Choices: Major life changes, such as relocation or big purchases.
Example — What if OpenAI announces that they have reached AGI?
### Comprehensive Report: The Impact of OpenAI Reaching AGI
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#### **Subject Overview**
If OpenAI announces that they have reached Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), it signifies the development of an AI system capable of performing any intellectual task a human can do, across diverse domains, without requiring specific training for each task. This milestone would mark a paradigm shift in technology, societal organization, and humanity's relationship with intelligence and automation.
---
### **Futures Wheel Analysis**
#### **First-Order Consequences (Direct Effects)**
1. **Economic Disruption**
- AGI could automate vast portions of the economy, leading to significant job displacement across numerous sectors.
2. **Scientific Acceleration**
- AGI could rapidly solve complex problems in fields like medicine, energy, and physics, driving exponential progress.
3. **Ethical Concerns and Regulation**
- Governments and organizations would urgently address potential misuse, AGI safety, and equitable deployment.
4. **Global Power Dynamics Shift**
- Nations with access to AGI would gain geopolitical advantages, potentially sparking competition or conflict.
5. **Public Reaction**
- Public responses would range from widespread enthusiasm to fear, resistance, or existential anxiety.
6. **OpenAI's Role in Society**
- OpenAI would face unprecedented influence and scrutiny, possibly becoming a dominant global actor.
7. **Existential Risks**
- Concerns about misaligned AGI goals and the potential for losing control over such systems could grow.
8. **Educational Transformation**
- Education systems would need to adapt to focus on uniquely human skills and collaboration with AGI.
---
#### **Second-Order Consequences (Combination Effects)**
1. **Emergence of AGI-Driven Economic Systems**
- AGI could create entirely new economic models, such as token-based AI economies or decentralized workflows.
2. **Surge in Global Economic Inequality**
- The concentration of AGI ownership could exacerbate wealth disparities both within and between nations.
3. **Instability in Global Currencies**
- Traditional fiat currencies might lose trust as decentralized AI-managed digital currencies gain prominence.
4. **Rise of AI Governance Models**
- Governments might adopt AGI-assisted governance systems to regulate and manage its societal impacts.
5. **Job Market Polarization**
- The demand for high-skill, specialized roles could rise while lower-skill jobs become obsolete, deepening divides.
6. **Geopolitical Tensions Over AGI Access**
- Rivalries and alliances could form around AGI control, with nations leveraging it for strategic advantage.
7. **Cultural and Philosophical Shifts**
- Societies might undergo upheaval as AGI challenges traditional philosophies and reshapes humanity’s role in the world.
---
#### **Third-Order Consequences (Expanded Indirect Effects)**
1. **Collapse of Traditional Employment Structures**
- Industries reliant on traditional labor models might dissolve, giving rise to decentralized, AGI-managed systems.
2. **Creation of a Universal Digital Economy**
- A universal digital currency, potentially managed by AGI, could challenge traditional monetary systems.
3. **Fragmentation of International Alliances**
- Existing global alliances (e.g., NATO, UN) might fracture as nations prioritize their AGI strategies.
4. **Acceleration of Post-Scarcity Society**
- AGI could reduce production costs and solve resource problems, bringing humanity closer to a post-scarcity economy.
5. **Global Psychological Crisis**
- Existential challenges could arise as traditional societal roles, cultural beliefs, and personal purpose are eroded.
6. **Proliferation of Rogue AI Economies**
- Unregulated AGI systems might form parallel economies, undermining government control and regulation.
7. **Decoupling of Wealth from Labor**
- Wealth distribution could become independent of human labor, with AGI-driven productivity at the core of the economy.
8. **AI-Centric Cultural Hegemony**
- Nations with dominant AGI systems might influence or homogenize global culture, potentially provoking resistance.
---
### **Key Themes and Considerations**
#### **Risks**
- **Economic Disruption**: Job displacement, increased inequality, and currency instability.
- **Existential Risks**: Misaligned AGI goals, loss of human control, and the potential for rogue AGI economies.
- **Geopolitical Instability**: New rivalries and alliances over AGI control, possibly leading to conflicts.
- **Cultural Upheaval**: Societal norms, philosophies, and individual purposes could be profoundly disrupted.
#### **Opportunities**
- **Scientific Progress**: Rapid breakthroughs in solving humanity’s most pressing challenges.
- **Economic Efficiency**: Automation and deflationary pressures could reduce costs and improve access to goods.
- **Post-Scarcity Potential**: AGI could pave the way for a society where material needs are universally met.
- **Governance Innovation**: AGI-assisted governance could improve decision-making and resource allocation.
#### **Ethical Considerations**
- **Equitable Access**: Ensuring AGI benefits all of humanity rather than a select few.
- **Alignment with Human Values**: Guaranteeing AGI operates safely and in alignment with ethical principles.
- **Regulation and Oversight**: Balancing innovation with safeguards to prevent misuse or unforeseen consequences.
---
### **Next Steps**
1. **Global Collaboration**: Foster international cooperation to regulate AGI, ensuring equitable access and mitigating risks.
2. **Education and Reskilling**: Prepare societies for AGI’s impacts through reimagined education systems and reskilling initiatives.
3. **Scenario Planning**: Conduct simulations to anticipate and prepare for cascading effects, especially in geopolitics and the economy.
4. **Public Engagement**: Build awareness and trust through transparent communication about AGI’s capabilities and limitations.
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This comprehensive framework maps the potential ripple effects of OpenAI reaching AGI. Let me know if you’d like to refine or expand any specific areas!Example — What if AI is able to design and build digital products as well as the best humans?
### Comprehensive Report: The Impact of AI Designing and Building Digital Products as Well as the Best Humans
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### **Subject Overview**
If AI achieves the ability to design and build digital products (e.g., software, websites, applications) as effectively as the best human experts, it would revolutionize industries by drastically increasing productivity, reducing costs, and accelerating the development cycle. This capability would redefine the roles of human designers, developers, and businesses while also raising significant questions about quality control, originality, and societal adaptation.
---
### **Futures Wheel Analysis**
#### **First-Order Consequences (Direct Effects)**
1. **Increased Productivity**
- AI-driven development could significantly shorten product design and development timelines, allowing businesses to release products faster.
2. **Reduced Costs**
- Companies could lower costs by relying on AI instead of expensive human talent for many digital product tasks.
3. **Job Displacement in Tech**
- Designers, developers, and engineers may face job displacement as AI takes over their roles in creating digital products.
4. **Democratization of Innovation**
- Individuals and small businesses could gain access to tools previously requiring significant expertise, enabling a wave of new, independent digital creators.
5. **Rise of Hyper-Customization**
- AI could create personalized digital products tailored to individual user preferences, beyond the scale of human capabilities.
6. **Ethical and Legal Challenges**
- Questions around intellectual property, originality, and accountability for AI-designed products could arise.
7. **Shift in Human Roles**
- Human designers and developers may transition into supervisory or creative strategy roles, focusing on guiding AI rather than hands-on work.
8. **Explosion of Digital Products**
- The ease and speed of AI-driven development may lead to an overwhelming number of digital products, saturating the market.
---
#### **Second-Order Consequences (Combination Effects)**
1. **Intensified Market Competition**
- Faster development cycles and democratized creation could drive innovation but fragment consumer attention, making markets more competitive.
2. **Devaluation of Digital Products**
- The sheer volume of AI-generated products might lead to a decrease in perceived value, making it harder for any one product to stand out or command high prices.
3. **Human-AI Creative Partnerships**
- Human creators may focus on providing high-level vision, while AI handles execution, leading to new models of collaborative creativity.
4. **Legal Overhaul in Intellectual Property**
- Governments and organizations may need to create entirely new intellectual property frameworks to address questions of ownership, originality, and accountability for AI-designed products.
5. **Reduced Barriers to Entry in Digital Business**
- More individuals and small businesses may enter digital markets, diversifying offerings but also increasing competition.
6. **Overload of Subpar Products**
- The speed and cost-efficiency of AI-driven development might result in a flood of low-quality or poorly designed digital products, making it harder for users to find high-value solutions.
7. **Strain on Digital Infrastructure**
- The proliferation of AI-generated products could strain platforms, app stores, and digital ecosystems as they struggle to manage and vet the influx.
8. **Cultural Shift in Creativity**
- Societies may redefine creativity as a partnership between humans and AI, challenging traditional notions of originality and craftsmanship.
---
#### **Third-Order Consequences (Expanded Indirect Effects)**
1. **Erosion of Professionalism in Tech Industries**
- The distinction between professional-grade and amateur work may blur as AI floods the market, challenging perceptions of quality and expertise in the tech industry.
2. **Global Digital Infrastructure Overhaul**
- Governments and organizations might need to invest heavily in upgrading infrastructure to accommodate the influx of AI-generated digital products.
3. **Marginalization of Human Creativity in Digital Design**
- Purely human-generated designs may become rare, leading to a reevaluation of the value and role of human creativity.
4. **New Business Models for Digital Ecosystems**
- Platforms and marketplaces might adopt subscription models, AI-curated marketplaces, or pay-to-promote schemes to manage the overwhelming influx of products and ensure profitability.
5. **Emergence of AI-Native Design Languages**
- AI may develop entirely new design languages optimized for machine interaction and user personalization, leading to interfaces and aesthetics that diverge from human-created norms.
6. **Economic Inequality in Digital Access**
- While more creators gain access to digital tools, those with better resources (e.g., premium AI systems) could dominate, creating a digital divide between "AI-haves" and "AI-have-nots."
7. **Redefinition of Intellectual Property Value**
- Intellectual property frameworks might devalue originality, focusing instead on execution speed, market adaptability, or ongoing refinement.
8. **AI-Driven Standardization of Digital Products**
- To combat market saturation, AI systems might self-regulate by prioritizing certain design standards or templates, leading to greater uniformity in digital products.
---
### **Key Themes and Considerations**
#### **Risks**
1. **Market Saturation**: An overwhelming number of low-quality digital products could undermine user experience and dilute the value of digital innovation.
2. **Job Displacement**: Designers and developers could face significant job losses, requiring reskilling and societal adaptation.
3. **Economic Inequality**: Disparities in access to advanced AI tools could deepen the divide between small-scale creators and well-resourced organizations.
4. **Strained Infrastructure**: The flood of AI-generated products could overwhelm existing digital platforms and infrastructure.
5. **Ethical Dilemmas**: Ownership, originality, and accountability for AI-designed products need new legal and moral frameworks.
---
#### **Opportunities**
1. **Democratization of Innovation**: Small businesses and individuals could gain unprecedented access to professional-grade tools, sparking innovation.
2. **Increased Efficiency**: Faster, cheaper product creation could benefit businesses and consumers alike.
3. **New Roles for Humans**: Supervisory, strategic, and creative collaboration roles may emerge, blending human ingenuity with AI capabilities.
4. **Emergence of Novel Designs**: AI might introduce entirely new paradigms in design and interactivity that humans alone could not envision.
---
#### **Ethical Considerations**
1. **Equitable Access**: Mechanisms must ensure fair access to advanced AI tools, especially for small-scale creators and underserved regions.
2. **Accountability and Oversight**: Governments and industries must establish accountability frameworks for AI-created products to ensure safety, legality, and fairness.
3. **Preserving Human Creativity**: Efforts should be made to value and maintain human input in digital creation, balancing automation with human-driven originality.
---
### **Next Steps**
1. **Regulatory Development**: Governments should prioritize crafting new intellectual property and accountability frameworks for AI-driven design.
2. **Reskilling Initiatives**: Educational programs should prepare workers for supervisory, strategic, and AI-collaborative roles.
3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Digital platforms and ecosystems need upgrades to handle the surge in AI-generated content.
4. **Scenario Testing**: Businesses and policymakers should conduct simulations to prepare for cascading effects of AI-driven digital innovation.
5. **Public Awareness**: Foster transparency and engagement to ensure societal understanding of AI’s capabilities and limitations.
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This report maps out the cascading impacts of AI designing and building digital products as effectively as humans. Let me know if you'd like further elaboration on any aspect!Adding Modifiers
Change the actor: You can modify the prompt by asking AI to respond from a perspective other than a futurist, such as a physician, politician, subject-matter expert, or professor.
Push the direction: You can adjust the prompt to request AI to concentrate on a specific type of consequence, such as focusing on weird, negative, or positive consequences.
Deep Dives: If there’s something specific you want to learn more about, follow up by asking the AI to provide more information or re-run the analysis to focus on the new topic.
Change the output: Have AI spit out an XML file that you can import into tools like draw.io for a visual representation of the futures wheel.
Conclusion
Balancing creative brainstorming (like the futures wheel) with a structured AI prompt gives you a sneak peek into future outcomes — both the good and the bad. This blend of art and tech helps you move faster while staying mindful of potential pitfalls.
Thanks for reading, and let me know how it goes. If you spot interesting use cases or have success stories, definitely share them with me!
