Harness AI to Make Smarter, Safer Decisions Using a Futures Wheel

A simple prompt to reveal unintended consequences

I wrote a post a while back about futures wheels — a quick way to spot the direct and indirect consequences of a decision, event, or trend. It’s a structured brainstorming tool popularized by Jerome C. Glenn. You pick an event for brainstorming, list out possible outcomes, and then connect them like a mind map to see second- or third-order effects.

Today, I’m revisiting that post for the AI era. Rather than only sketching on a whiteboard (still a great way to brainstorm), I’m using an AI prompt to dig deeper into every possible outcome — especially the hidden ones. If you want to avoid unpleasant surprises, an AI assistant can help spot the side effects you might miss on your own.

My adaptation of Jerome C Glenn’s futures wheel

Below, I’ll walk you through:

1. Why you need a thorough view of consequences.
2. How to combine a futures wheel approach with an AI prompt.
3. A simple prompt template you can copy and adapt.

Why This Matters

We make big decisions every day, from important life decisions to critical work-related ones. A standard “pros vs. cons” list might not surface hidden impacts — like how a small tweak to your product’s pricing could strain customer support or trigger unexpected PR issues.

That’s where AI can help. By guiding it to explore each outcome in a structured way, you’ll spot pitfalls and opportunities early.

The New AI Twist

Think of the AI prompt as your personal research assistant — one that questions, challenges, and cross-checks your ideas. It follows a structure similar to the futures wheel but goes deeper, assigning probabilities, noting evidence levels, and highlighting ethical or sensitive concerns. It’s like having a second brain that’s always on the hunt for blind spots.

Example Prompt Template

Replace [your subject] with your topic, then feed this into your AI assistant. I like to use GPT-based models, but anything advanced enough to handle structured responses will do.

This will deliver a comprehensive and structured analysis of your subject’s impact chain, emphasizing clarity, logical reasoning, and probabilistic weighting.

You are to act as a “futures wheel” analyst. 

The subject is: [Insert Your Core Decision, Event, or Trend Here].

1. **Subject Overview**  
   - Summarize the subject in 1–2 sentences so we’re clear on the context.

2. **Direct Consequences**  
   - List a set of first-order (direct) consequences that might result from this subject. 
   - Include both positive and negative outcomes.
   - For each consequence, assign a probability or confidence level (e.g., 60% ±10%, High/Medium/Low).

3. **Combining Direct Consequences**  
   - Randomly pair or group 2 or more direct consequences and see if their combination creates a new, second-order outcome. 
   - In other words, if both Consequence A and Consequence B happen together, what additional effect might emerge?
   - Assign a probability or confidence level for each of these indirect “combo effects.”

4. **Indirect Consequences**  
   - List out all the new (second-order) impacts that come from combining direct consequences.
   - Highlight any particularly surprising or hidden impacts.

5. **Summary & Next Steps**  
   - Provide a quick overview of the key points, including major risks, benefits, or ethical considerations.
   - Suggest how we might explore or manage these outcomes.

I also created a GPT for this, if you want to try it out.

This framework mirrors the idea of a futures wheel, but with an added layer of AI-driven logic. Each “impact path” in the prompt is like a ring on the futures wheel, highlighting the next set of consequences. The final sections (hidden impacts and long-term results) help you brainstorm even further.

How to Use It

1. Run the Prompt: Copy and paste the template above into your AI tool, filling in [your subject].
2. Review the Output: Spot-check for anything surprising or new. The AI might uncover angles you never considered.
3. Adjust & Iterate: Tweak the prompt as needed. If your subject changes, re-run the analysis.
4. Visualize: If you like, translate the AI’s output back into a simple futures wheel diagram for a quick visual reference.

Example Use Cases

Animated process for filling out a futures wheel

• Business Decisions: From changing pricing to opening a new office location.
• Team Strategy: Hiring or restructuring. Catch potential friction points and plan solutions.
• Product Roadmap: Assess feature launches for risk vs. reward.
• Personal Choices: Major life changes, such as relocation or big purchases.

Conclusion

Balancing creative brainstorming (like the futures wheel) with a structured AI prompt gives you a sneak peek into future outcomes — both the good and the bad. This blend of art and tech helps you move faster while staying mindful of potential pitfalls.

Thanks for reading, and let me know how it goes. If you spot interesting use cases or have success stories, definitely share them with me!